Sun. Jul 20th, 2025

Ask Ethan: Can we fix the worst prediction in all of science? | by Ethan Siegel | Starts With A Bang! | Jul, 2025


In theory, every quanta within each quantum field theory has a spectrum of excitations it can occupy, and those excitations occur within that quantum field theory, impacting the zero-point energy of empty space. Given the particles and fields we know our Universe possesses, a naive prediction for the zero-point energy of space, or the value of the cosmological constant, is enormous. This is a longstanding puzzle that, even in 2025, still remains unresolved. (Credit: Derek B. Leinweber)

The measured value of the cosmological constant is 120 orders of magnitude smaller than what’s predicted. How can this paradox be resolved?

Ethan Siegel

Although we don’t often think about it, the world of science is split in two. We have theorists, on the one hand, who strive to tease observable, measurable predictions out of our best models and ideas concerning the Universe. On the other hand, there are experimentalists and observers, who seek to perform those key tests of reality and to determine whether the theories we have accurately describe reality, or whether we’re in need of something more than our current understanding. Each time we perform a new test, or look at the Universe in a fundamentally different or more precise way than ever before, we bring these two worlds together, allowing nature itself to become the arbiter of what we deem as our best approximation of what is real and true.

But sometimes, our theoretical predictions turn out to be nonsensical, and what we observe and measure turns out to be humbling and surprising. In the worst case scenario, our predictions and observations will conflict by enormous amounts, leaving us completely puzzled. It’s precisely that problem that we face when it comes to the zero-point…

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