Over the long-term backers of the Penarth Headland Link project believe it could generate a £300m economic impact
How the Penarth Headland Link could look.(Image: © Anthony Barber)
Backers of an elevated walkway from Penarth seafront to Cardiff Bay are confident that the project will finally be realised and provide an iconic tourist attraction for Wales, while long term generating a return on investment of £300m. The Penarth Headland Link scheme was originally planned to form an integral part of the Cardiff Bay Barrage project.
The 1.1km-long walkway, supported by a viaduct structure 11m in height, would stretch from Penarth’s Esplanade around the headland to the Cardiff Bay Barrage providing access to the wider bay area.
When completed in 1999, the barrage created a 500-acre freshwater lake and provided the impetus for commercial development across the bay.
The now-defunct Cardiff Bay Development Corporation (CBDC) failed to deliver the walkway. Following its winding up, £7.5m of public money was ring-fenced for Vale of Glamorgan Council to deliver it.
However, the projected costs of the scheme, which was planned to be 12m wide, spiralled to well over £20m. With the Welsh Government not prepared to meet the shortfall, the project was effectively shelved in 2005.
The charitable Penarth Headland Link Trust was established just over a decade ago with the aim of helping to see the link realised through a new design. Prior to Covid, the project secured support and some initial funding for feasibility studies – although not a funding commitment to deliver the walkway – from the Welsh Government and Cardiff and Vale councils.
Current trustees include former First Minister and Welsh Secretary Alun Michael, former head of the Cardiff office of engineering consultants Arup John Lovell, entrepreneur Brendan Sadka, and former Welsh Government special adviser Jeff Andrews.
Elevated above the beach at Penarth, the walkway has been designed to be used by both walkers and cyclists and to be operational 24/7.
Working with Cardiff Harbour Authority, which would be the delivery body for the project, the trustees are now looking to move things to the next stage by securing the required marine licence – a process that could cost around £1m.
To ensure safety from falling rocks, the structure would be located some 25m away from the cliff-face.
The impact of rising sea levels caused by climate change has also been factored into the latest design. The trust said a projected £30m cost assessment for the scheme, carried out in 2023, remains valid.
They also believe the project could generate an economic and wellbeing return of £300m over a 30-year period, based on a number of inputs including the positive impact of attracting large numbers of tourists, transport and wellbeing benefits, acting as a catalyst for further commercial development, and boosting property values.
However, they concede this would require further testing through an independent economic impact assessment.
How the Penarth Headland Link project could look.(Image: © Anthony Barber)
The land over which the proposed link would be built is in three sections. One is owned by Vale of Glamorgan council.
Another was owned by the Whannell family, but that section has since been transferred to Cardiff Harbour Authority. To relinquish ownership, the family accepted a £10,000 contribution towards a donkey sanctuary in the west of England.
The money was provided through non interest bearing loans by some of the trustees, which have now been written off. The final section required for the project is owned by Plymouth Estates, which has agreed to transfer ownership for a nominal £1 to enable delivery of the project.
Mr Michael said: “The Penarth Headland Link is not just a little local project that it would be nice to have – it’s potentially a massive symbol of what local regeneration can contribute to rebuilding confidence in the future and in the economy of Wales and the wider UK.
“As well as its own intrinsic value to the economy, the Headland Link offers an opportunity, at comparatively low cost among major capital investment programmes and within a relatively short timescale, to create something iconic, visible and popular, while enabling the benefits of the massive investment in the Cardiff Bay Barrage to be realised locally, regionally and nationally.”
Mr Lovell, who headed Arup’s Cardiff office from 1990 to 2012 and was part of the team that helped deliver the barrage project, said: “I regard not getting this off the ground as one of my career failures.
“It’s madness that it hasn’t been built. Everybody we speak to, including politicians, is absolutely for it.
“There’s not a voice against it. There is a strong feel-good factor case for this project.
“We’re focusing on the economic case over 30 years, using present-day values, where you have to get over 100% before it would be considered a viable funding case. This gets to 1,000%, with a £300m return over a 30-year period.”
Explaining the calculations, he said: “One element is transport, where we’ve done the work and get to about a 0.7 return on investment.
“So it doesn’t cross 100%, but it gets to about 70%. In other words, we get a £20m gain from a £30m investment through transport benefits such as savings in fuel and car maintenance, time savings and reduced traffic accidents.
“You then look at tourism, which we consulted Arup on, and based on the greater Cardiff Bay area, we assumed a 3% increase in tourism. If you compute that over 30 years, you get to £200m.
“In terms of property, which is where I think the greatest gain lies, this includes the domino effect and the catalyst for other developments that would occur because this gets built. The Harbour Authority is allowing us to consider development of the outer harbour. They only need around 50% of that, so the rest might be used as a contractor’s site during construction, after which we would create a waterside site on the outer headland that would be very valuable.
“When we did the original master-planning of the Bay while at Arup, we referred to the Penarth Headland Link as the ‘Arc of Entertainment’.
“It was intended to be a ring along which you had major developments, alongside smaller projects. So imagine a place with temporary buildings, street food, artists – all along the trail.”
Mr Sadka said: “In civil engineering terms, this is a highly visible and fantastic project, but in terms of complexity and time to delivery, it’s at the more straightforward end of the scale.
“It’s highly deliverable because a lot of work has already been done, and it could be built within a relatively short timeframe.”
Mr Lovell said the walkway has been designed to factor in climate change, rising sea levels and safety from the cliffs overlooking the beach at Penarth.
He added: “The proposed project would be positioned 25m away from the rock face. In the worst-case scenario, if you get rockfall and bounce, we are not affected. We’ve factored in 100 years of climate change and the possibility that it could even be lifted up in the worst case.”
On longevity, Mr Lovell said:“Most civil engineering projects of this nature are designed for a 70-year lifespan. That’s the design criteria in terms of physical impacts. However, this would last for 300 years.”
The marine licence process would be overseen by Natural Resources Wales. However, a final decision – although technically a matter for the UK Government’s Department for Transport – would effectively be made by Welsh Government ministers. Subject to the project securing a marine licence, work could start in 2028.
While the trustees accept that the current funding climate for publicly-funded projects is challenging, they argue that the long-term positive impact of the scheme provides a strong case for backing.
The trustees are not seeking any private funding for the project, including the option of securitised capital against a modest toll for pedestrians and cyclists.
They will instead explore Welsh and UK Government funding avenues, as well as potential regional funding. If a marine licence is secured by the target date of 2028, Mr Lovell said the prefabricated design of the viaduct-supported walkway means it could be built in a relatively short period of up to nine months, potentially opening in 2029.
Mr Michael said the walkway could provide a significant boost to the Wales Coast Path, as well as becoming a major tourist attraction in its own right.
He said: “We have no doubt that the image of the Headland Link, once it is built, will be among the most iconic images that greet visitors as they arrive at Cardiff Airport or Cardiff Central Station. “It will help the Wales Coast Path, which has the potential to become an iconic international ‘must-do’ destination to the benefit of every part of Wales, especially if connected to Offa’s Dyke, the Taff Trail and the many other historic paths and trails across Wales.
“At the moment, there is little confidence or clear vision for the Wales Coast Path. So the pitch for me, which is particularly exciting, is that at present there is no clear start point in Cardiff for the Wales Coast Walk This project could see it starting say from the steps of the Senedd.”