 
 
XRP has been volatile lately after failing to hold its aggregate holder cost basis, a technical breakdown that has intensified short-term pressure despite constructive longer-term signals.
According to Glassnode, the loss of the realized cost basis triggered a wave of panic selling, pushing several on-chain profitability metrics into negative territory and reviving comparisons to prior consolidation phases.
Moreover, Glassnode data shows the seven-day exponential moving average of XRP’s spent output profit ratio has fallen sharply from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96, indicating that most coins moved on-chain are now being sold at a loss.
As SOPR dropped below one, realized losses accelerated, and overall on-chain profitability flipped negative, a pattern that closely mirrors the September 2021 to May 2022 period when XRP endured prolonged consolidation before stabilizing.
Earlier Glassnode updates noted that XRP’s realized price was near $1.48, with market structure resembling that of April 2022. A January 19 assessment compared current conditions with those in February 2022. That is, investors active over the one-week to one-month window are accumulating at a price below the cost basis of holders in the six to twelve-month cohort.
 
As this structure persists, psychological pressure on top buyers continues to build, increasing the risk of further distribution.
Despite this fragility, recent on-chain activity suggests growing long-term interest. Santiment reported that after XRP briefly dipped below $1.15, the asset rebounded above $1.50 amid intense network activity. During the sell-off, whale accumulation surged, with 1,389 transactions above $100,000, the highest level in four months.
Meanwhile, unique XRP Ledger addresses spiked to 78,727 in a single eight-hour window, a six-month high and a classic signal of capitulation-driven accumulation.
As of writing, XRP is down 1.29% to $2.97, underperforming a slightly positive broader market, per CoinMarketCap. The token’s outlook now hinges on whether institutional utility and sustained ledger activity can offset bearish technical momentum.
Analysts are closely watching for a recovery in SOPR above 1 and renewed buying volume to defend support near $1.20, which could mark a shift from capitulation toward base building.